Archive for June, 2009

My 401K is Down 60%, Now What?

This week I had 2 tests and 1 term paper so of course I didn’t get to do any posting but I did get an interesting call from my mom. She wanted me to help a friend of hers out with a financial problem.  Her 401k dropped about 60% in this financial crisis. I was very saddened to hear this news but I figured she had some time keep contributing and growing her assets. However, I was further saddened to hear that her friend was in her 60’s already and the account was only worth a little over $35,000. Now I was thinking there is not much to work with here but it in fact got worse. I got a statement emailed to me and found out there was a $20,000 loan on the 401k. That left actual equity in the 401k to be about $15,000. Wow now I have my work cut out of for me! I still have to call my mom’s friend and actually get way more information before I can get down to business but I really wanted to help her as best I can and come up with a game plan.

Questions I need to get answered:

1.    How much social security is she expecting or currently receiving?
2.    Does she plan to retire from her current job?
3.     How much approximately does she and her husband make per month or per year?
4.     How much do they spend per month or per year?
5.     Finally how much do they have outside of the 401k?
6.    Does she have debt and if so how much and what type of debt is it?

I don’t know how many of these questions I will get answered, they are extremely personal. Trusting someone over the phone in a different state is incredibly difficult to do and probably the number one issue in the financial advising industry. Still, the more questions answered, the better chance I will have to help.

The investment are spread out in about 10 or so funds some in 45% lifestyle funds, 30% Large Cap, 15% Small/Mid Cap and 10% International. Personally I am not a big fan of the lifestyle funds but in her case it may be useful. I haven’t decided how I want to do the allocation yet but I want to get some more information and what her strategy was in setting her 401k up this way.

The sad truth is there probably was no strategy in setting up the 401k. Since the great stock market from 1980 to 2000, people are told to put money into the 401k and to diversify. The idea of the market going down or that broad diversification may not always be the best idea might never come into people’s mind. I can’t help but be incredibly sad and upset with our education system. We are taught about World War I in history class but how to invest or save is pretty much ignored. Hopefully, I can help but I am not optimistic as of right now. I will keep everyone up to date as I get more information and explain the process of coming up with a plan in my future posts.

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How to Save Money on Books

booksI love books. I love buying them. I love reading them. My girlfriend is no different. Over the years we have both spent a lot of money on books, especially since about half of the books on our shelves we paid the retail price. It is so easy to buy a book at a bookstore, but it’s also a great way to overspend. Books are a discretionary item, first and foremost; you don’t need them to survive. It may sound like I am lecturing but I actually had to re-enforce that into my own head. I bought books like I was buying food and spending way too much on them. When you treat them as a discretionary item, you tend to try to look for better prices. Even though my love of books hasn’t changed, I decided I needed to be smarter about how I purchased them. Here is how I buy books now:

Step 1. Doing some Fun Research – My Girlfriend and I love going to the local Barnes and Noble store to look at books. There are other book stores where we live but that just seems to be our favorite. It’s great to spend an afternoon browsing and it’s also an opportunity to create a book wish-list. My girlfriend likes to write down the titles of the books she’s interested in and I prefer to use the app on my phone that allows me to scan the bar code and store it in my phone. If I want my phone to search for cheaper prices locally or online, it can do that to but I’m getting ahead of myself. Now that we have our lists, it’s time to go book-hunting.

Step 2.  Try renting the book for free – The Public Library is often overlooked when wanting to purchase a book. If you want to keep a copy of the book, then its best to skip this step but if you only want to read a book, this is the best free resource available. It’s amazing to me that libraries are basically free bookstores and still not many people take advantage. I know that the two most common complaints I have heard about the library (aside from the boring décor and ambience) are the limited availability of new books and limited selection of titles. I agree with both but it is worth a shot to try to find the book at the library. So before I buy a book, I search the library catalog online for a copy: If they have a copy available right away I go pick it up, if not, I just put a hold request on it. If the book isn’t available at all, I move on to Step 3. I used this step when I was preparing for a trip to California and wanted something to read on the plane. I was able to find the book I wanted without spending a penny, not to mention I had a great flight!

Step 3.  Buying online – If you can’t find the book at the library, then search online for a copy. Even though Amazon.com is the leader, I always start with Half.com. Both are great resources for buying new and used books.  Through the power of the competitive market, I can find a dozen sellers that are selling my desired book at a much better price than the book store. I am really interested in all things finance and was recently searching for a book titled The Number by Lee Eisenberg.  Flexo from Consumerism Commentary has talked a lot about this book and, I believe, called it is his favorite for personal finance. The list price for the book is $26 but I found it online for $0.75 plus shipping. Not bad for a fairly new book (it came out in 2006). This is a great way to easily save about 75% of all book purchases! I am not buying the book however as I found it at my library and I’m going to get it for a weekend read (hopefully).

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I know there are some concerns or criticisms to these steps but so far, by using this plan, I have saved hundreds of dollars in books over the past couple of years. To be fair, I’m going to address those issues below.

Common Criticism of My Method (a.k.a. my girlfriend’s concerns):

1.    What if I desperately need to have the book and want to read it right away? My answer: Most people say that their lives are incredibly busy and I know my life is busy as well. Let say we spend an hour or two at the bookstore. If I buy a book, am I going to read it right away? Hell no! I may browse through it, even read a chapter, but when I get home, there are things we have to do: laundry, take the dogs for a walk, get dinner ready and study for school. I have never bought a book and went home and finished it that day (though, to her credit, my girlfriend swears she has done this numerous times). In my opinion, no book is so important you must buy it today. Go home, spend 5 minutes, check out the library or buy it online. Not only can you save 75% off the retail price, you might just be able to get it for free.

2.    But it’s more fun to buy books at the store! My answer: It’s more fun to save money and spend it on other things. Why not take the money you saved on all those books and go to the movies? Or save it? Or do something else with it?

3.    Aren’t we being unfair to the bookstore, browsing and leaving without buying a thing? My answer: No, it’s not unfair. When I go to buy a TV, I go to different stores to compare prices. Where I buy depends on prices and service and so on. Same thing with books or anything else really. If you can buy it for less, why shouldn’t you? At the same time, whenever I am in a bookstore, it’s never empty. There are still a ton of people that will happily pay retail price. If that’s what they want to do, great!  If they don’t want to pay retail, then they should read my post!

4.    What about books that are newly released? My Answer: Anything new will cost more (cell phones, movies, music). If you can’t find the book at a discount on Amazon.com, I would use the library at this point. If you check around online at different branches, you can find brand new release books quickly. One new release book that I was actually planning to buy turned out to be so horrible that I didn’t buy it and was so thrilled that I checked it out at the library first. Also wait until the first wave of people, who rushed out to buy the book, start putting them up for sale on Half.com. If you can wait, I think the savings are well worth it.

photo by Faeryan

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My Car Dilemma

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My boss is looking to get a new 2009 Mercedes Benz and, besides being insanely jealous, it got me thinking about my car. I have a car that I have owned since 1999 and, according to the Kelley Blue Book value, is worth about $1500. I had a problem with my ignition last month and it cost me about $350 to fix; that’s 23% of the total value of my car! The auto-repair place “recommended” about $2000 in additional repairs to get the car in tip-top shape. I don’t even need to go through to the numbers to know the repairs will cost more than my car is actually worth, which brings me to my dilemma: Should I buy a new car or keep my current car until it goes kaput?

First of all, I need to evaluate my financial condition currently. Things don’t look so hot in this category. The end of 2008 took a toll on my investments, even though I fared much better overall than the S&P 500. (I think I’ll post my returns on another post.) My net worth also took a hit due to my investment losses and from paying tuition for school. I started my MBA program in 2008 and, as luck would have it, right as this financial crash happened, I brilliantly decided to go back to school. My portfolio goes down and the school takes the rest of my money!

Another thing weighing on my mind is saving for a house. A lot of these future decisions rest on graduating with my MBA. At this point, I am not sure where I am going to live since it depends on where, and if, I take a new job. I would love to leave and make more money elsewhere but in this economy the new maxim is “any job is a good job”. Hopefully this will change very quickly but I’m realistic and expect a bad job market for a while. Although getting a house is definitely on my list of goals in the next couple of years, it wouldn’t be practical to buy a house here only to move six months later. Finally, my finances are being stretched to the point that I’m considering a student loan. Consumerism Commentary had a good post a few days ago about the new lower rates on student loans starting in July which was a vote in my mind to take out a student loan. I hate debt and getting into debt for the first time in a while would be an unhappy day for me to say the least!

Back to the car dilemma: I am looking to get a 2005 Honda accord.  I saw the kbb.com value to be about $8,000. I could buy the car outright with my savings but that would completely wipe me out. I could consider financing the car but as I mentioned, I don’t really want to go into debt. Another option is just getting a new car considering there are a lot of 0% offers on new cars right now but I would still be paying more than I want to for a car right now. I might be able to qualify because I have good credit but I don’t think I really want to due to the high price tags of new cars (although it would be nice).

After weighing all of my options, I’m leaning more towards keeping my car and just shelling out the $2000 to keep it in good shape. My car got me through high school and college and although it has its issues, I’d be a little sad to see it go. There are a lot other factors up in the air right now like where I’ll be living in a year and whether or not I’ll stay at my current company. I think it just doesn’t make sense to buy a car right now, unless I have to. I’m just keeping my fingers crossed that my car will hold out until everything settles and then I can reevaluate buying a new car.

photo: Plutor

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The Coming Wheat Crisis?

Growing up I knew medicine wasn’t in my  future, but occasionally I like to read up on interesting issues/ideas in Biology. However there is a topic no one is talking about and maybe they should be: the Ug99 fungus or Stem Rust fungus. What is it?  I don’t know fully but it’s a fungus that is killing wheat plants and according to this L.A. Times article, it could destroy up to 80% of the world’s wheat crops. It started in Africa but has already spread closer to Pakistan and will eventually get to the United States. Scientists are in a race to come up with a resistant plant crop, but as of right now, nothing is close to being immune to the fungus. The problem is that the fungus can spread by air so it’s going to get worse before quickly unless a cure is found. This is not new to the World; it has just been a few decades before the stem rust mutated again. This is such a huge problem that the Gate’s Foundation gave $26.8 million in 2008 to Cornell University for research on the situation.

wheatThink this doesn’t have anything to do personal finance? Clearly, if 80% of the world’s wheat crop is gone, this is going to have huge ramifications on our daily food consumption and costs. Remember back about a year ago when everyone was complaining about food and gas prices going up? Well, if these predictions are true, wheat prices could be going up more dramatically than most of us have ever seen in our lifetime. We need to protect ourselves by hedging if this fungus is as dangerous as it sounds. While buying wheat futures contracts might be an option for some, it’s not reasonable for most and I would rather go ETF/ETN route. This might be a little bit easier as you can trade this like a stock and don’t have to set up an account trading futures.  Here are several good candidates: DBA, JJA, RJA, JJG, & GRU. I like GRU since, as far as my research shows it is holding about 50% Wheat while the others are more diversified in their holdings. Also, I looked hard for a pure wheat ETF but, as of right now, I don’t think there is one. I will modify the post if I turn out to be wrong.  Please note, GRU’s volume is very low so if you are looking just for a hedge this might be right but it’s not as liquid as other stocks/ETFs.

Now I don’t know if this fungus will stop in India when scientists cure it and that’s the end of the whole thing. But one sign that I may be on to something comes from the fact that GRU was only down about 1% while the others are down closer to about 4% today. It could be a number of reasons like lack of volume or just dumb luck. At the present moment, this Stem Rust fungus doesn’t look to be clearing anytime soon. It is important that we spread the word and also look to protect (hedge) ourselves if the fungus does spread as quickly and radically as expected.

photo: usda.gov

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Is My Girlfriend A Better Investor Than Me? Final Results

Overall Results

Four weeks ago I read an article about if women are better investors than men, so I decided to play a week investment game with my girlfriend. The game turned out to be more about the fact that I had some investment knowledge and my girlfriend didn’t. However, the results were shocking to me. My girlfriend officially won the game with an overall return of +9.05%. My return was a good +7.77% but not good enough. The stock that sealed the victory was her pick of Coach (COH) the luxury goods maker which gave her a +35% gain in 3 weeks. I was incredibly surprised at this pick especially when the economy is in such bad shape. I didn’t think a luxury bag company could be going up but shows how much I know.  The two stocks that helped me at least stay in the game were OIH (+14.5%) and ATI (+7.19%). Unfortunately, Oil is running back up and at least I saw this was going to happen to profit from it. Sadly I filled up last night and gas prices went up 4 cents in about 5 days. Allegany Tech was up 7% in one week which helped narrow my girlfriend lead along with her losing 3% in Target.

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Final Thoughts

I think some key elements really played a role in the overall success of the game that should be investigated:

1. Prior experience was no guarantee of success – Just because I have traded stocks for years really did not give me a clear advantage over my girlfriend who has never purchased a stock in her life. My paradigm for investing said there was no way Coach could perform well in this economy and that made me miss out a fantastic opportunity. My girlfriend had no preconceived notions about investing and gave her more freedom (and ultimately, the win). So have an open mind when investing for yourself!

2. Importance of understanding the overall market trend - Had we played this game in Oct of 2008 instead of May-June 2009, both of us would have been down probably in the double digits. It must be understood that since the March 9th low, the market has been in an upward trend and during our investment game the S&P 500 was up about 6%. That means I could have invested in the SPY (S&P 500 Index ETF) and been up about the same as what I did with all of this investment maneuvering. It would have been less work and less agony with about all of the upside. So if the market (or even real estate) is in an uptrend, it’s easy to make money, when it isn’t that is when you have a real challenge. If you don’t believe me ask all the people in 1999 who quit their jobs to become full-time day traders.

3. This wasn’t an Investment Game - This was a trading game, pure and simple. We took a short time frame and played a game for fun. Trading off of what you like as an investment theory is a dangerous idea in my opinion. For a real investing period of like 20-40 years, I think diversifying in equities with Index funds, no-load mutual funds and few stocks picks is the right way to go. I will talk about my investment strategy in another post but just understand my girlfriend and I were both flat out lucky!

Please note: there is no recommendation to buy or sell here and ModernMoneyBlog.com will not be held responsible for any action on your part. This is for informational purposes only.

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