Archive for category Trading/Investing
Which Retirement Savings Account is the “Best”?
Posted by Sonny in Personal Finance, Trading/Investing on July 20th, 2009
This weekend a family member was asking me about investing and asked me “which type of IRA is the best?” My answer was none of them. The reason I said that is because all of them have advantages and disadvantages and each could be the “best” depending on the individual’s needs. Here is a real quick run through of each type of investment account and my thoughts on them. This post is only for W2 employees who just want some simple advice. I am aware of other IRA’s but I won’t address those at this time. At the end of this post, I will discuss what I have elected to use. Remember this is just a blog, please see a CPA and tax planner to build an ideal strategy for yourself.
Traditional IRA
With a Traditional IRA, money is invested pre-tax (before tax) and therefore this reduces your taxable income. The idea here is that you get to invest you money now without being tax and then the government will tax you after you take the money out. Hopefully that number will be higher so you benefit from the larger account balance and the government gets to tax you on a higher amount. At the same time if you were to retire and therefore have a much lower income, the income tax rate you would pay could be lower. This is ideal situation is if you have a high income tax bill now but you expect to be in a lower tax bracket in retirement. The contribution amounts for 2009 (from IRS.gov) are $5,000 for anyone under the age of 50 at the end of 2009 and $6,000 for those 50 or older before 2010 assuming you qualify based on your income (check the irs.gov website). There is a lot more to go over but here is the main point: Main Advantage = Tax Deferral
Roth IRA
A Roth IRA is an account where money is invested after tax (so already paid taxes on it) and therefore the growth on the account is tax-free. The benefit of course is that if you grow your money, you get to keep that money tax-free since you the paid the tax up front. With the stock market volatility recently that’s a big assumption but in the long term should work out. The government is always in need of more money so they benefit from this plan as a dollar now is worth more than a dollar in the future. If you are in a low tax bracket and expect it to grow in the future than this is the plan for you. Another advantage that is commonly listed for Roth IRA’s is that contributions (NOT GAINS) can be withdrawn at any time. I would of course only use this provision under dire straits and that is why I try to avoid talking about it. Why give people the temptation? The contributions amounts for 2009 are the same for a Roth as they are for a Traditional but the income limitations are different. Please check those out and make sure you consult a professional to double check you do qualify. If you decide to do a Traditional IRA, you can not elect to do a Roth IRA. Finally one common misconception about the Roth IRA is the belief that Congress will one day in the future decide to change the laws which will make gains on Roth IRA’s taxable. I just don’t see this happening. This would be a great way for a politician to get thrown out of office and so I think we are safe from this fate. So the Main Advantage for the Roth IRA: Tax-free Investment Growth!
401K
This is a plan typically set up by private businesses Roth IRA’s are a way to let employees invest tax deferred money which can be invested. There is a Roth 401k which is like the Roth IRA but again this is up to the employer and the more popular plan is the original 401k. With a 401k plan, contributions are made by electing a percentage of income that you want to be invested in the company 401k Retirement plan. This money is then put into the plan and depending on your custodian (vanguard, fidelity, ING etc) that will determine what investment options you may have. Some plans have 5 choices: Cash, Bond fund, Large Cap Stock Fund, Mid & Small Cap Stock fund and International Stock Fund. That’s it but some allow you to buy everything under the sun. It just depends on the company plan and if you are like most employees, you may have no real say except maybe complaining to the HR/401k Administrator at work (which at my job does nothing!). One benefit for the 401k is the fact that it’s pretty simple to enroll in a company plan. At my job I just put down the percentage I wanted invested per paycheck, sign, and I am all done. It also is a way to invest without self sabotaging and saying “oh I will invest later once I pay…”. Once the plan is started, the money is automatically taken out of your paycheck. Out of sight and out of mind! Finally another benefit is the fact that the money is tax deferred like an IRA but unlike an IRA the contribution limits are $15,500 for 2008 and $16,500 for 2009. This is about 3 times as much as you can put in a IRA! I saved the most important advantage for last: COMPANY MATCHING! Most companies provide some type of matching of employee contributions. Typically I have seen matching up to 3% of employee contributions. So if the employee contributes just 3%, the company will give the employee 3%. If you are not contributing to your 401k, please at least consider contributing up to the point where you company matches. Its free money! The main advantage to a 401k is clearly the employer matching.
What do I do?
Right now my income is low and I think it will get higher (hopefully soon!) so I have Roth IRA but I also invest in the company 401k. I have both automatically invested every month so I don’t even see it happening. Unlike a 401k, however, this feature was rather hard to set up for my Roth for some strange reason. It took me about 1 month of calling, filling out forms and waiting to get this to automatically invest. , however, I don’t have do anything. My 401k does provide a 3% match on my contributions. Right now I contribute 3% but I used to contribute (before my school expenses) about 15%. When I graduate I plan to up this amount to about 20% hopefully. The reason I choose not to do a Traditional IRA is because the basic tax deferment benefits is already occurring through the use of the 401k. My strategy is to max out the Roth IRA first through automatic monthly investment. The reason I do this is so I can benefit from tax-free gains in the future and have the freedom to determine how I want my Roth invested. If I want all cash I can do that, if I want a specific mutual fund, I can do that, and if I want to pick 10 mutual funds I can do that too. There is pretty much no limit to what I can do investing in stocks/mutual funds/bonds. I enjoy this freedom and have this fully allocated to equities to benefit from future tax-free gains. On the 401k side, my investment choices are quite limited, so I try to protect principal as much as possible. I have about 50% invested in bonds, 40% in cash and only about 10% in equities/mutual funds. My 401k and Roth IRA are about the same size but for 2008, my Roth lost about 30% while the 401k lost about only 10%. That was by design and I couldn’t be happier with the results. Well I take that back, I would be happier if they were up! Overall an appropriate investment account should be selected based on each individual’s person situation and of course I make no recommendations. I’m just sharing my thoughts!
The Coming Wheat Crisis?
Posted by Sonny in Economy, Trading/Investing on June 15th, 2009
Growing up I knew medicine wasn’t in my future, but occasionally I like to read up on interesting issues/ideas in Biology. However there is a topic no one is talking about and maybe they should be: the Ug99 fungus or Stem Rust fungus. What is it? I don’t know fully but it’s a fungus that is killing wheat plants and according to this L.A. Times article, it could destroy up to 80% of the world’s wheat crops. It started in Africa but has already spread closer to Pakistan and will eventually get to the United States. Scientists are in a race to come up with a resistant plant crop, but as of right now, nothing is close to being immune to the fungus. The problem is that the fungus can spread by air so it’s going to get worse before quickly unless a cure is found. This is not new to the World; it has just been a few decades before the stem rust mutated again. This is such a huge problem that the Gate’s Foundation gave $26.8 million in 2008 to Cornell University for research on the situation.
Think this doesn’t have anything to do personal finance? Clearly, if 80% of the world’s wheat crop is gone, this is going to have huge ramifications on our daily food consumption and costs. Remember back about a year ago when everyone was complaining about food and gas prices going up? Well, if these predictions are true, wheat prices could be going up more dramatically than most of us have ever seen in our lifetime. We need to protect ourselves by hedging if this fungus is as dangerous as it sounds. While buying wheat futures contracts might be an option for some, it’s not reasonable for most and I would rather go ETF/ETN route. This might be a little bit easier as you can trade this like a stock and don’t have to set up an account trading futures. Here are several good candidates: DBA, JJA, RJA, JJG, & GRU. I like GRU since, as far as my research shows it is holding about 50% Wheat while the others are more diversified in their holdings. Also, I looked hard for a pure wheat ETF but, as of right now, I don’t think there is one. I will modify the post if I turn out to be wrong. Please note, GRU’s volume is very low so if you are looking just for a hedge this might be right but it’s not as liquid as other stocks/ETFs.
Now I don’t know if this fungus will stop in India when scientists cure it and that’s the end of the whole thing. But one sign that I may be on to something comes from the fact that GRU was only down about 1% while the others are down closer to about 4% today. It could be a number of reasons like lack of volume or just dumb luck. At the present moment, this Stem Rust fungus doesn’t look to be clearing anytime soon. It is important that we spread the word and also look to protect (hedge) ourselves if the fungus does spread as quickly and radically as expected.
photo: usda.gov
Is My Girlfriend A Better Investor Than Me? Final Results
Posted by Sonny in Trading/Investing on June 12th, 2009
Overall Results
Four weeks ago I read an article about if women are better investors than men, so I decided to play a week investment game with my girlfriend. The game turned out to be more about the fact that I had some investment knowledge and my girlfriend didn’t. However, the results were shocking to me. My girlfriend officially won the game with an overall return of +9.05%. My return was a good +7.77% but not good enough. The stock that sealed the victory was her pick of Coach (COH) the luxury goods maker which gave her a +35% gain in 3 weeks. I was incredibly surprised at this pick especially when the economy is in such bad shape. I didn’t think a luxury bag company could be going up but shows how much I know. The two stocks that helped me at least stay in the game were OIH (+14.5%) and ATI (+7.19%). Unfortunately, Oil is running back up and at least I saw this was going to happen to profit from it. Sadly I filled up last night and gas prices went up 4 cents in about 5 days. Allegany Tech was up 7% in one week which helped narrow my girlfriend lead along with her losing 3% in Target.


Final Thoughts
I think some key elements really played a role in the overall success of the game that should be investigated:
1. Prior experience was no guarantee of success – Just because I have traded stocks for years really did not give me a clear advantage over my girlfriend who has never purchased a stock in her life. My paradigm for investing said there was no way Coach could perform well in this economy and that made me miss out a fantastic opportunity. My girlfriend had no preconceived notions about investing and gave her more freedom (and ultimately, the win). So have an open mind when investing for yourself!
2. Importance of understanding the overall market trend - Had we played this game in Oct of 2008 instead of May-June 2009, both of us would have been down probably in the double digits. It must be understood that since the March 9th low, the market has been in an upward trend and during our investment game the S&P 500 was up about 6%. That means I could have invested in the SPY (S&P 500 Index ETF) and been up about the same as what I did with all of this investment maneuvering. It would have been less work and less agony with about all of the upside. So if the market (or even real estate) is in an uptrend, it’s easy to make money, when it isn’t that is when you have a real challenge. If you don’t believe me ask all the people in 1999 who quit their jobs to become full-time day traders.
3. This wasn’t an Investment Game - This was a trading game, pure and simple. We took a short time frame and played a game for fun. Trading off of what you like as an investment theory is a dangerous idea in my opinion. For a real investing period of like 20-40 years, I think diversifying in equities with Index funds, no-load mutual funds and few stocks picks is the right way to go. I will talk about my investment strategy in another post but just understand my girlfriend and I were both flat out lucky!
Please note: there is no recommendation to buy or sell here and ModernMoneyBlog.com will not be held responsible for any action on your part. This is for informational purposes only.
Is My Girlfriend A Better Investor Than Me? Week 3 Results
Posted by Sonny in Trading/Investing on June 5th, 2009
The Rich get Richer. My girlfriend was beating me by about 6% last week and now is beating me by 8%. This is getting depressing now and I think the emotional aspect of this is really getting to me. Now I’m not sure if I should continue to buy stocks that have economic factors influencing their movement or if I should just try to win the game. With only 1 week left in the game this is it and I think she has won. I might make our 4 stocks an index of sorts and track it even after the game is over just to see what happens. Anyways here are our results and our picks for the last week. I don’t think I’m going to win the game!
|
Overall My Return |
7.86% |
|
Overall GF Return |
16.95% |
|
Buying Price |
Thursday Close Price |
Gain/Loss |
% Gain/Loss |
Time Held |
|
|
XLF |
11.75 |
12.43 |
0.68 |
5.79% |
3 Weeks |
|
WFMI |
20.55 |
21.43 |
0.88 |
4.28% |
3 Weeks |
|
MCD |
55.62 |
60.24 |
4.62 |
8.31% |
2 Weeks |
|
COH |
19.82 |
26.94 |
7.12 |
35.92% |
2 Weeks |
|
OIH |
99.64 |
109.08 |
9.44 |
9.47% |
1 Week |
|
SBUX |
13.71 |
15.17 |
1.46 |
10.65% |
1 Week |
Fourth Week Picks:
Me – Buy ATI (Allegheny Technologies Inc) at $40.36
My analysis – I think this metal and basic materials company will do well in an improving global economy.
My GF – Buy TGT (Target Corp) at $40.95
My GF’s analysis – She thinks people enjoy going to the stores more than a crowded Wal-mart and thinks this store will benefit as the economy improves.
Please note: there is no recommendation to buy or sell here and ModernMoneyBlog.com will not be held responsible for any action on your part. This is for informational purposes only.

